COVID Cases are Rising Again. Here’s What to Know About the Summer Surge
COVID cases are increasing in 47 states, but severe illness remains low. An internal medicine doctor explains what’s driving the surge and how to stay healthy, including staying up to date on COVID vaccines.
COVID might not be on most people’s radars this summer, between the outbreaks of cyclosporiasis, a heavy tick season and historic levels of measles cases. But the virus continues to circulate, and cases are surging around the country.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID cases have grown or are likely growing in 47 states. The good news is, the cases appear to not be as severe as past COVID surges, with the CDC also noting that the current rate of emergency department (ED) visits due to COVID is low. Additionally, the Food and Drug Administration recently approved an updated COVID vaccine for people 65 and over, as well as for younger people who have a condition that increases their risk of severe illness from COVID.
To learn more about the COVID summer surge and what you can do to stay safe, Health Matters spoke with Dr. Joseph T. Cooke, chief of the Department of Medicine at NewYork-Presbyterian Queens and an associate professor of clinical medicine at Weill Cornell Medicine.
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Is there a COVID summer surge in 2026?
Dr. Cooke: Yes, although the rate of increase is lower than what we experienced last year. Nationally, nearly 5% of COVID tests came back positive the week of August 15. At this time last year, it was 11%, according to the CDC. In New York specifically, there were 3.4 cases of COVID per 100 thousand people at this time last year. Today, it’s 1.5, according to the New York State Department of Health.
The highest burden right now is in states in the South and West, with New York seeing a low increase in cases. Additionally, hospital and ED visits due to COVID remain low, meaning people aren’t getting as sick from COVID.
Why are COVID hospitalizations low during the summer surge?
Dr. Cooke: It’s likely a combination of factors. One is herd immunity, in that enough people have been vaccinated or exposed to COVID that when the virus circulates, more people are protected. This is why it’s important to stay up to date on vaccines as they help protect against both the disease itself and the spread of the virus.
Just because ED visits and hospitalizations are down, it doesn’t necessarily mean the circulating COVID strains are weaker. Vulnerable populations, including those who are immunocompromised, elderly, infants, or those with chronic conditions, are still at an increased risk for serious illness.
What is the dominant COVID variant this summer?
Dr. Cooke: XFG.1.1 is currently the dominant strain, making up roughly 22% to 39% of U.S. cases in recent CDC estimates. Another variant, BA.3.2, also known as Cicada, is responsible for about 5% to 16% of cases.
Identifying these strains helps vaccine makers determine what strain to target with their next COVID shot.
“In the last few summer cycles, COVID has calmed down in the early fall and picks up again during flu season. We expect to see a similar pattern this year.”
Summer cold vs. COVID: How can you tell the difference?
Dr. Cooke: It can be very difficult because the symptoms are similar. If you have a bad cough or a cold that lingers, give yourself an at-home COVID test. And regardless, if you have symptoms, use the trusted prevention measures like social distancing, wearing a mask, washing your hands and avoiding the most vulnerable populations.
Why does COVID surge in the summer? Should we expect a surge every summer?
Dr. Cooke: Yes. We now know that COVID has basically two cycles, where it spikes in the late summer and the winter — unlike the flu, which only spikes in the winter. Researchers are still working to understand why COVID tends to surge on this cycle.
In the last few summer cycles, COVID has calmed down in the early fall and picked up again during flu season. We expect to see a similar pattern this year.
What is ensitrevlir and how does the new COVID medication work?
Dr. Cooke: Ensitrelvir is for post-exposure prophylaxis. If you come into contact with or are exposed to someone you know has tested positive for COVID, this medication can help prevent you from getting COVID.
The other COVID medication (which contains both nirmatrelvir and ritonavir and is known by its brand name, Paxlovid) is taken after testing positive. It reduces the amount of the virus that causes COVID in the body and prevents symptoms from getting worse. For both medications, it’s best to take them as early as possible after exposure or testing for the best results.
It’s important to note that both medications can have serious interactions with other drugs. They are also not recommended for pregnant women. If you have been exposed or tested positive, talk to your doctor or healthcare provider to make sure you can safely take these medications.
Overall, how can you protect yourself from the COVID summer surge?
Dr. Cooke: Mask up, wash your hands and stay home if you are feeling unwell. Keep some at-home test kits around for yourself, your family or your loved ones. If you have a cough, cold, or other flu-like symptoms that linger, get tested and talk to your doctor or healthcare provider about the next steps if someone tests positive.
And stay up to take on your COVID vaccine. Since there are two COVID cycles, getting vaccinated at any time of year can be helpful.
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